The recession is dead ... long live the recession!
by Guy R. McPherson
The world’s first peak-oil recession has come to a close, according to third-quarter numbers invented by the federal government. Apparently dumping trillions of dollars onto big banks, insurance companies, and automobile manufacturers interrupted the plummeting descent of American Empire. The stock markets skyrocketed expectedly. Predictably, so did the commodities markets. In fact, the lifeblood of western civilization is bumping up against the “Goldilocks” limit of $80/bbl, as I predicted would occur under economic growth. A minimum price of $60/bbl allows oil suppliers to make enough money to justify new projects, so per-barrel prices between $60 and $80 are supposed to be “just right,” even though today’s price is four times higher than the 20-year average. The “Goldilocks” minimum price of $60/bbl matches the “Goldilocks” maximum price of 2005. As recently as 2003, OPEC had an official “Goldilocks” zone between $22/bbl and $28/bbl. For a little historical context, consider this: In 1969, the U.S. refused a ten-year, locked-in offer of $1/bbl oil from the Shah of Iran because the price was too high. Among the many consequences of passing the world oil peak: the days of When localization is back in style, and globalization is dead, we won’t need to worry about politicians ignoring -- and even mandating -- torture in the name of greed. Not to mention a host of other nasties. That’ll be a nice change. Maybe, just maybe, completion of the imperial decline will lead us to real wealth instead of encouraging us to pursue the phantom wealth of money, as described by David Korten:
I don’t think we will overcome the ideology of evil (i.e., empire) by nibbling around the edges, as most people believe, or even by restructuring the economy in the ways Korten suggests. For one thing, the people who benefit from the current economy are the ones who would need to take leadership as we make the necessary changes, and I don’t think they’re interested. In my mind, at least, and even in my dreams, that leaves one solution: the industrial economy has to run its course. As I’ve indicated before, that’s the route we’ll need to save what’s left of the living planet, including our own species, as well as restoring our long-lost humanity. Original article available here |
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