Peak Oil - Oct 2
by Staff
Click on the headline (link) for the full text. Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
That drop was a short-term, market-driven event that changes nothing to the long term perspective. Even a recession in the US will not be enough to curb worldwide demand growth: demand may stagnate in North America, and grow less quickly in emerging countries, but 5% growth in China, Russia or Saudia Arabia (instead of 10% growth) still means a lot of new oil demand each year. So don't expect me to give up on my series yet. In fact, the fierceness of the attacks on the peak oil theme, which was beginning to get traction in the media earlier this year, shows how unwilling our societies are to undertake any change in that respect. Which simply means that prices WILL have to go up much higher to force the inevitable changes on us. It'll just be more painful for us, is all. So we should not rejoice that energy gets off the radar screen for a while again.
...How much more oil do we have? This simple question will have a drastic impact on how the government will or should use the remaining oil revenue. Elaborating on the later concept, it is clear that oil is something that will not last forever, and as much as I would love to believe the official oil figures, I think that to-date one needs to distinguish between wishful thinking and actual facts. Once we will have established a clear inventory of how much oil we have left, it will be great time that we start restructuring the economy using the oil available to kickstart a new series of economic diversification schemes. ...I think that today the question is not if we need to diversify-but rather how and when will we start to be serious in changing the current status-quo? I am no guru and I suppose that only time will tell. However I believe that we need to get our act together and soon before we start heading for real trouble..
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