Oil prices & supplies - Mar 17
by Staff
Click on the headline (link) for the full text. Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Cheney, on a trip to the Middle East that started in Iraq, said he did not see a lot of excess production capacity worldwide. ... Asked about the prospects for increased oil production in the region, Cheney told reporters in Baghdad traveling with him: "One of the problems we've got now obviously is that there is not a lot of excess capacity worldwide."
But, of course, it is easy to understand. It is so much more comfortable to paint the ever-higher oil prices, and the development of still thoroughly hippie-tainted wind power as temporary aberrations or meaningless bursts of irrational exuberance rather than as persistent realities, because that would mean that the comfortable assumptions that underpin today's economic model have to be questioned. Perpetual growth, the deification of the quick buck based on blissful ignorance of externalities, and individual freedom have to give way to long term planning, intrusive regulation of pollution and emissions, policies to reduce demand and care for the commons. And that cannot be promoted, can it? Thus, it's a bubble. A few examples... Isn't it possible - indeed probable - that both are true? That there is both a long-term rise in the price of oil, as well as bubble-like behavior? -BA
... "From the physical point of view there is no high alarm," Shell's Jeroen van der Veer said at a news conference. "It's difficult to understand why the oil price is where it is." "No tankers are waiting in the Middle East, there are no queues for the retail stations here."
-- Crude prices are already at record highs in real terms deflated by US producer prices. However, oil prices would have to rise to $118/bbl to exceed their all-time highs in real terms deflated by US consumer prices. -- Relative to per capita income, crude prices would have to reach $134/bbl to bring the purchasing power of an average G7 (group of seven industrialized nations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) consumer to the levels that prevailed in 1981. -- West Texas Intermediate prices would have to rise to $150/bbl for oil as a percent of global gross domestic product to hit the all-time high that prevailed in 1980. -- Crude prices would have to hit $145/bbl to raise energy expenditures as a percent of US disposable income to early 1980s levels.
... "What can you do?" the delegate told Reuters. "Prices are completely ignoring the fundamentals of supply and demand. Even if we had increased (at the meeting), I don't think it would have changed anything. It is financial speculators, the weak dollar and funds driving the price." |
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