Mini case study: peak demand in Germany
by Thomas Christiansen
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008, German Primary Energy consumption dropped -5.6% in 2007. This is the largest drop of any nation surveyed except Denmark and Azerbaijan. According to the 2008 BP survey, Germany had ‘twin peaks’ in Primary Energy consumption in 1997 and 2001. Total consumption in 2007 was -7.9% off peak levels. In 2007 oil consumption dropped -9.0%. German consumption peaked in 1998 at 2.915 million barrels per day. In 2007, consumption was 2.393 million barrels per day, meaning current consumption is -17.9% off peak levels. In 2007, Natural Gas consumption dropped -9.4%. Coal consumption increased +3.0%. Nuclear decreased -16.1%. Hydro increased +2.6%. Other renewables are excluded from the survey, thought in total, renewables now provide about 14.2% of German electricity production. I would volunteer a number of reasons for this, some of which I think are one-offs some of which are sustainable. Sustainable Factors (some more sustainable than others) One-offs As we are now likely at or close to peak world oil production levels, what does the German example mean for everyone else? Initial savings come cheap and fast, but what happens when most of the fat has been cut out of consumption? Wind and solar to the rescue? – what happens when they reach grid parity? How transferable are some of these factors to emerging countries which are rapidly industrializing? |
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