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Interview with Swiss director of A Crude Awakening
Thomas Stephens, swiss info (Switzerland)
Oil-addicted world faces crude awakening

As petrol prices reach record levels, the maker of an award-winning Swiss film on peak oil talks to swissinfo about an issue which is affecting everyone, everywhere.

Described as "one of the most frightening films you are ever likely to see" by British newspaper The Guardian, A Crude Awakening is essential viewing for anyone wanting to understand the current crisis and why the future is far from rosy.

... A Crude Awakening, which won the Zurich Film Prize in 2006 and has been distributed in more than 20 countries, was made by Swiss journalist Basil Gelpke and Irish-born filmmaker Ray McCormack, who has lived in Zurich since 2000.

McCormack, who has a degree in environmental policy, tells swissinfo how kicking the fossil fuel habit is going to require a radical change in lifestyle – for everyone.

swissinfo: How many times a day do you say "I told you so"?

Ray McCormack: We don't say that, but when people said we were scaremongering and just helping the oil companies make more profits, we would say "well we hope we're wrong, but it doesn't look like we are"

... swissinfo: Have you changed the way you live?

R.M.: I don't own a car – and of course in Switzerland it's a lot easier than in other countries. In the United States they're going to find it extremely difficult because of the way their whole society is constructed – their cities were designed after the invention of the car, unlike in Europe. I also have an allotment and am learning how to grow food – I think it's something we should all learn to do right away.

swissinfo: How will the average Swiss notice the effects of peak oil?

R.M.: It's prices. The price of food, electricity, transport – and it's happening already.

... swissinfo: All the talk is of the United States, Russia, China – what can little Switzerland do?

R.M.: This might be a small country but it has a huge effect in terms of the global influence of Swiss-based non-governmental organisations. We also have some of the best engineering minds in the world and the Swiss government really should be throwing money at these people and challenging them to find renewable solutions.
(13 August 2008)

The path from petroleum shortages to electricity shortages
Gail the Actuary (Gail Tverberg), The Oil Drum
It seems to me that there is likely to be a very short path from petroleum shortages to electricity shortages. There are a lot of issues involved, from the fact that the fuels used in electricity production are themselves dependent on petroleum for their extraction and transportation, to the current state of the US electricity infrastructure, to the impact of peak oil on debt financing. I have written about most of these issues before, but since the petroleum/electricity link is such an important one, I thought I would devote an article to putting the pieces together.

... Because of all of the foregoing issues, I expect that we will encounter electrical difficulties within twenty years. The timeperiod may even be much shorter than this..

... It seems to me that the model we should be envisioning for future electric supply is local electric supply.

... We need to be looking closely at what is really feasible, and aiming for that level.

With the limited amount of electricity available from local production, our ability to manufacture things will be much reduced. We will need to prioritize what we do manufacture carefully, so as to have the basics covered--food, clothing, heating, and basic transportation. I doubt we will be able to count on imports for very much of our basic needs.

It seems to me that we should be analyzing the situation closely, and developing plans that will work, based on what has worked in the past. We should be thinking about raising more draft animals and building small windmills to pump water. We should be thinking about building bicycles, if we can get all of the necessary components locally sourced. We should be thinking about what infrastructure is really essential (fresh water, hydroelectric dams, geothermal electricity, basic roads), and taking steps to maintain it.
(13 August 2008)

Oil prices have peaked
Ed Morse, Financial Times
Thanks in no small degree to a drop in global demand, oil prices, after breaching $147 per barrel, have tumbled more than 23 per cent to below $113. Barring a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or a disruptive geopolitical event, oil prices appear to have peaked.

World oil consumption is now growing at a significantly lower pace than had been imagined a year ago. Last October, the International Energy Agency was forecasting global demand growth for 2008 of 2.1m barrels a day, with 750kb/d from the OECD and 1.33mb/d from emerging markets. In their latest monthly report, the IEA has slashed this by more than 60 per cent to 800kb/d, with OECD demand actually forecast to decline by over 600kb/d and emerging markets demand to grow by 1.4mb/d.
(13 August 2008)