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Forecasting Coal Production Until 2100
Steve H. Mohr and G. M. Evans, The Oil Drum
Quite a few of us are familiar with the work Dave Rutledge and the Energy Watch Group have done looking at whether the production of coal will peak and when. Steve H. Mohr and G. M. Evans from Australia have been kind enough to offer us a copy of new paper they have written, that has been accepted for publication in the journal Fuel (DOI: 10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032). This new paper explores the issue further. It develops a wider range of peak dates and emphasizes the need for better coal reserve data. The authors have indicated that they would like our feedback on their approach and how to improve it.

The paper is under the fold. We have tried to render the article in HTML, but it is difficult to make the formatting as perfect as when it is typeset. Please accept our apologies. A PDF version of the article can be downloaded here, if you prefer that format.
- TOD editor Gail Tverberg

Forecasting coal production until 2100

Abstract

A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for 3 scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.
(6 April 2009)

In search of Lithium
Dan McDougall, Daily Mail
The good news: A wonder metal that fires your phone, iPod and shiny new electric car is so clean it may save the planet. The bad news: More than half of the world's lithium is beneath this Bolivian desert...and getting it is so dirty it inspired the latest Bond plot
(5 April 2009)

The Future of Oil Prices
Marcin Gerwin, Permaculture Research Institute of Australia
As Matt Simmons points out: oil is not just another commodity. For industrial societies oil is as basic as food and water. That’s why the price of oil cannot go up very high after the production of oil peaks. Economic logic suggests that if demand is high and supply is low then prices will skyrocket. However, there are goods for which the prices cannot be set by the interplay of demand and supply, because if they were it would undermine the viability of the whole economy. Oil is one of these goods.

Many analysts suggest that the price of oil will rise sharply after the peak. They predict that one barrel of oil may cost 280 USD, 350 USD or even 600 USD. Speaking strictly from the economic point of view, this is correct. Demand outstrips the supply, so the price goes up. But… there’s something missing from this picture – that being politics. At the moment world leaders are working hard to restore economic growth. It doesn’t matter if it makes sense or not, that’s just what they intend to do. The price of oil directly underpins the livelihoods of millions of people. What would politicians do if the price of oil started to rise again? Would they react or not? Would they allow their economies to crash again under the high price of oil or would they counteract? And what would people do? Would they march on the streets demanding their governments to act or not?

When analyzing the future of oil supply to my home country, Poland, I looked at it from a social perspective, and I just cannot imagine that prices on the gas stations will go up, up and up. If the fuel prices crossed a certain level, let’s say 5 zlotys per 1 liter of petrol (at current exchange rate that would be USD $1.51 per 1 liter or USD $5.71 per gallon) we would have massive social unrest, road blocks and protesters screaming from the top of their lungs right in front of the prime minister’s office. They would wave the “Solidarity” flags, bang pots and blow sirens until the prime minister’s ears would fall off. People would demand the government reduce the fuel duty in the first place. In Poland taxes are a large chunk of the price of petrol, even 53%. Our government would have to react or it would face defeat in the next elections. That’s the political logic. It seems to me that the same situation would be repeated in other EU countries that have high fuel taxes.
(7 April 2009)