The following is a selected list of studies of various aspects of energy security (including peak oil) which have either been conducted by members of the military/security research community, or which raise issues with direct military/security relevance.

This list is by no means complete, nor does it include the growing body of literature on the military/security aspects of climate change.

These research studies are listed chronologically, in descending order.

A note (“POc”).at the end of some entries indicates that the study deals with the peaking of global oil production and views it as a credible near-term concern.

2009

• CNA, Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009, 60 pgs. POc
• Crane, Kevin et al., Imported Oil and U.S. National Security, RAND Corporation, May 2009 (127 pgs). This provides an introduction and the link to RAND’s study. A review of this study may be found here.
• Litvin, Daniel, Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire, Chatham House, March 2009, 16 pgs. This provides an introduction and the link to Litvin’s study.
• Luft, Gal, Dependence on Middle East Energy and its Impact on Global Security, IAGS, 2009, 10 pgs.
• Maccoby, Nora, The Energy Conversation: The First Three Years, CNA, 2009, 54 pgs. This document provides summaries of the 31 "energy conversations" (March 2006 to Jan. 2009). As the link below indicates, the Energy Conversation series was initiated by the Pentagon’s Office of Force Transformation and supported by the Naval Postgraduate School: The Pentagon’s Energy Conversation Series
• Stevens, Paul, Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict, Chatham House Feb. 2009, 31 pgs. This provides an introduction and the link to Stevens’ study.
• United States Joint Forces Command, The Joint Operating Environment 2008, Nov. 2008, 51 pgs. The JOE 2008 contains some strongly worded concerns about the prognosis for future oil supply (pgs. 16-19)
• Warner, J. and P.W. Singer, Fueling the Balance: A Defense Energy Strategy Primer, Foreign Policy at Brookings, Aug. 2009, 10 pgs.
• Wharton Aerospace & Defense Report, U.S. Military Hopes to be Energized by Alternative Fuels, University of Pennsylvania, Jan 2009, 4 pgs.

2008

• Davis, Daniel (Major, US Army), Running on Empty, Armed Forces Journal, May 2008. POc
• Defense Science Board Task Force on DoD Energy Strategy, More Fight, Less Fuel, Feb. 2008, 121 pgs. POc
• Eggers, Jeffrey W. (Cdr, USN), The Fuel Gauge of National Security, Armed Forces Journal, May 2008, 7 pgs.
• Elhefnawy, Nader, The Impending Oil Shock, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, April 2008, 31 pgs. POc This excellent article now seems to be behind a paywall.
• Fisher, Brent, Review and Analysis of the Peak Oil Debate, Institute for Defense Analyses, August 2008, 50 pgs. POc. A review of this study may be found here.
• Jaffe, Amy Myers and Ronald Soligo, Militarization of Energy: Geopolitical Threats to the Global Energy System, James Baker III Institute for Public Policy, May 2008, 63 pgs.
• King, Neil Jr., Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns, CNAS, July 2008, 16 pgs. POc
• Klare, Michael T., Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy, Holt, 2008, 339 pgs. POc
• Lengyel, Gregory J. (Col., USAF), Department of Defense Energy Strategy, The Brookings Institution, Jan 2008, 70 pgs.
• Mitchell, John V. and Paul Stevens, Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting States, Chatham House, July 2008, 40 pgs. This provides an introduction and the link to this Chatham House study. Their assessment is stark: "Of the twelve countries in this study, oil production is in decline or at a plateau in three: Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway. In a further seven countries, the plateau will be reached around 2010. Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan will reach a plateau before 2020" (p. 35). Please note also the startling bar-graphs (Fig. 5 & 6).
• Russell, James, Militarization of Energy Security, speech at James Baker Energy Forum, May 21, 2008, 12 pgs.
• Stelzer, Irwin, Energy Policy, Hudson Institute, Summer 2008, 22 pgs. Stelzer states, “We need to move energy policy from the Department of Energy to the Pentagon so that policy is made as part of national security planning” (p. 17).
• Wright, George G. (Col., U.S. Army), It’s Time for a National Energy Security Strategy, U.S. Army War College, March 2008, 30 pgs. POc

2007

• Blackwell, Kristine E. (Lt. Col, USAF), Department of Defense and Energy Independence: Optimism Meets Reality, Air University, April 2007, 72 pgs. POc. Blackwell’s very thorough study includes a 16-page appendix of legislative activity as well as an extensive bibliography. Both warrant close examination and offer useful leads.
• Chesley, Gary D. (Lt-Col, USAF), America’s Energy Security Policy: Goals for 2025, U.S. Army War College, Feb 2007, 24 pgs. POc
• Czarnik, Joseph E. (Lt-Col, U.S. Army Reserve), U.S. Oil Dependency: the New Weapon of Mass Disruption, U.S. Army War College, March 2007, 18 pgs.
• Davis, Daniel (Maj. U.S. Army), On the Precipice: Energy Security and Economic Stability on the Edge, ASPO-USA, July 2007, 37 pgs. POc. This study provides a concise overview of the issues and offers practical suggestions for administrative responses.
• Juhasz, C. Don (Chief Utilities & Energy Programs, U.S. Army), Rules of Thumb slide presentation, 2007 POc. Please note slides 2-5.
• Leckie, Cameron (Maj., Australian Army), Peak Oil and the Australian Army, Australian Army Journal, Summer 2007, 17 pgs. POc. This study provides a concise summary of how peak oil may affect the military in terms of personnel, equipment, training and doctrine. Editor's note: The Journal now seems to be behind a pay wall. The article can alternatively be accessed here.
• McCaskill, John R. (Lt. Col, USMC Reserve), Energy Security: the Nexus of National Security Strategy and Energy Policy, U.S. Army War College, June 2007, 20 pgs. POc
• Russell, James, Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today’s Middle East, Strategic Studies Institute, Nov. 2007, 46 pgs. This provides an introduction and the link to Russell’s study.
• Walsh, Shawn P. (Col, U.S.Army), Oil Vulnerabilities and United States Strategy, U.S. Army War College, Feb 2007, 23 pgs. POc.
• Winstone, Ruth et al., Energy Security, UK House of Commons Library, May 2007, 38 pgs. POc
• Wissler, John B. (Col. USAF), Strategic Art and Energy: an Alternate Ends-Ways-Means View, U.S. Army War College, May 2007, 26 pgs. POc

2006

• Fox, Dr. Liam (UK MP), Energy Security and Military Structures, Chatham House, May 2006, 14 pgs. Dr. Fox calls for the establishment of an Energy Security Directorate within the UK government.
• Hornitschek, (Lt. Col, USAF), War Without Oil: A Catalyst For True Transformation, Air War College, Feb. 2006, 90 pgs. POc
• Nygren, Kip (Col, U.S. Army) et al., Army Energy Strategy for the End of Cheap Oil, West Point, 8 pgs, Nov 2006. POc. DTIC provides an abstract and the link to this West Point study:
• Scheuer, Michael et al., Saudi Arabian Oil Facilities: The Achilles Heel of the Western Economy, The Jamestown Foundation, May 2006, 47 pgs. This provides an introduction and the link to Scheuer’s report.
• Tewkesbury, Dennis (Lt. Col., U.S. Army), Preemptive Energy Security, U.S. Army War College, March 2006, 22 pgs. POc.

2005

• Amidon, John M. (Lt. Col., USAF), America’s Strategic Imperative: A “Manhattan Project” for Energy, Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 39, Aug. 2005, 10 pgs. POc
• Archambault, P.M., ed., Strategic Assessment 2005, DND Canada, Directorate of Strategic Analysis, Policy Planning Division, Nov 2005, 96 pgs. POc
• Clawson, Patrick and Simon Henderson, Reducing Vulnerability to Middle East Energy Shocks: A Key Element in Strengthening U.S. Energy Security, Washington Institute, Nov 2005, 39 pgs.
• Oil Shockwave: Oil Crisis Executive Simulation, Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) and National Commission on Energy Policy, June 2005, 24 pgs. This top-level Washington exercise examined the potential effects of the sudden loss of 4% of global oil production. Participants included Robert Gates, James Woolsey and Gen. P.X. Kelley (USMC, Ret).
• Hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of Representatives, Understanding the Peak Oil Theory, Dec. 7, 2005, 91 pgs. POc
• US Army Engineer Research & Development Center (ERDC), "Energy Trends and their Implications for US Army Installations", Sept. 05. 86 pgs. POc

2004

Klare, Michael T., Blood and Oil, Holt, 2004, 265 pgs.POc

2001

Klare, Michael T., Resource Wars, Holt, 2001, 289 pgs. POc

1957

Rickover, Hyman (Admiral, USN), Energy Resources and our Future, speech given on May 14, 1957 in St. Paul, Minnesota. Introduction here by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett which includes link to original text. Considered to be “the father of the nuclear submarine”, Rick over was a far-sighted individual, as evidenced by this extract from his extraordinary speech:

But the most significant distinction between optimistic and pessimistic fuel reserve statistics is that the optimists generally speak of the immediate future - the next twenty-five years or so - while the pessimists think in terms of a century from now. A century or even two is a short span in the history of a great people. It seems sensible to me to take a long view, even if this involves facing unpleasant facts.”

Two other military resources

• This bibliography is offered as an updated supplement to the excellent Pentagon and Peak Oil: a Military Literature Review which was compiled by Dr. Sohbet Karbuz in 2006.
• Special mention should also be made of Andy Bochman’s ongoing work at the DoD Energy Blog. His information is thoughtfully presented and thoroughly sourced.

Appendix: Two non-military studies

The authors of the following two studies are not from the military/security research community. However, both studies are so fundamental to the oil-supply issue that they would surely be included in any thorough analysis. They are therefore appended to this bibliography.

• International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008. This WEO, marks a significant departure from the IEA’s traditional confidence in future oil supply. Its opening sentences state, "The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable…." It then warns of "dwindling resources in most parts of the world and accelerating decline rates everywhere" (p. 3). The WEO calls for “an energy revolution” and concludes, "Time is running out and the time to act is now" (Executive Summary, p. 15).

  This sudden change in tone is confirmed by subsequent verbal statements made by IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol. In a videotaped interview with George Monbiot, Birol states, "The reason we are asking for a global energy revolution is to prepare everybody for difficult days and difficult times. I think we should be very careful…." This interview is available here.

  Despite this recent tone of concern and the evidence which the WEO presents, the IEA still seems very reluctant to state that the peaking of global oil production (whatever combination of factors "cause" the constriction) will present some very serious challenges, that effective mitigation will require decades of intensive & cooperative effort, and that that the world appears to be quite unprepared for this event. These three points are cornerstones of the Hirsch Report (below). The complete WEO is 578 pgs and must be purchased. The Executive Summary (15 pgs) is available here.

• Hirsch, Robert et al., Peaking of World Oil Production: Impact, Mitigation and Risk Management, SAIC, Feb 2005, 91 pgs. POc. Dr. Hirsch’s landmark study is perhaps the most central document to the peak oil debate. This wiki provides a detailed introduction and links to both Hirsch’s summary and to the complete Hirsch Report.