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Peak Oil

Peak Oil, Peak Empire (341-KB PDF)
Community Solutions
As Peak Oil approaches, tensions are already building in the world. China appears to be a threat to our “national security” since they are consuming more and more energy. Japan speaks of taking more of a leadership role in Asia even if it means rearming. Russia is accused of backing off from the free market economy. India says a pipeline from Iran is necessary for its “national security.” Donald Rumsfield says we will be in Iraq another 12 years.

Wars are supposedly based on issues of freedom and goodness, but in reality they are mostly based on the desire for more land and resources. “Oil wars,” when they occur, are different only because occupation of land is not as relevant as actual control of the resources.

Inequity is increasing via the modern form of colonialism we call “globalization.” When Peak Oil occurs, wars of national energy liberation are highly likely unless we allocate the remaining fuels based on a concept of fair trade rather than free trade. This requires a fundamental change in American values. Unless the tremendous inequity in fossil fuel usage (which in today’s world equates to wealth) is addressed, conflict is inevitable.
(July 2005 issue)
Latest newsletter from Community Solutions gives a history of world empires, showing the connection to Peak Oil. The newsletter is 12 pages long, and the PDF is 341 KB. For one solution to the dilemma, see How to avoid oil wars, terrorism, and economic collapse by Richard Heinberg.

The group's second U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions is set for Sept 23-25.

The Cost of Oil And Hubbert's Peak
William Tucker, Bergen Country (NJ) Record via Rigzone
Will paying $50 to fill up the tank make Americans start thinking more sensibly about alternative means of power? Will gas-electric hybrids start to look more attractive? And if people start refueling their cars on the power grid, where will we get the electricity to accommodate them?

We'd better not start blaming this all on President Bush or wailing about the perfidies of the oil companies. The time has come to start rethinking our energy future.

William Tucker is an associate at the American Enterprise Institute.
(16 August 2005)
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a prominent business lobby in the US.

The Humpty Dumpty Effect
Luke Burgess, Wealth Daily
We all know the story of Humpty Dumpty.

Poor old Humpty was just relaxing, taking it easy on a wall one day. Maybe he was enjoying a smoke. Maybe he was checking out the lady eggs. Then all of a sudden... WHAM!! The poor schmuck falls off the wall and busts into a million pieces. No one can put him back together again. A sad story really.

That's what's happening with the oil balance right now.

Oil supplies are falling. When they hit the ground we're not going to be able to put the pieces back together to meet our energy needs.
(15 August 2005)
Wealth Daily is an investment publication, "Investing in the 3 G's of the Global Economy: Geology, Groundwater and Geopolitics."

Matt Savinar presentation on the Lifeboat Radio Show (AUDIO)
Caren Black and Christopher Paddon, Global Public Media
Caren Black and Christopher Paddon of The Lifeboad Show air and discuss portions of Matt Savinar's presentation on peak oil at the June 2005 Lifeboat Conference, and also read segments of Savinar's book, "The Oil Age Is Over".

The Lifeboat Show on KMUN in Astoria, OR is an initiative of The Titanic Lifeboat Academy. As an Outpost of the Post Carbon Institute, the Titanic Lifeboat Academy is a working demonstration site and non-profit education center promoting community-based, sustainable living practices, deep ecology ethics, indigenous energy systems and low-impact appropriate technologies in Coastal Oregon.
(17 August 2005)

Government unprepared for peak oil
Kevin Moore, NZ Herald
Few New Zealanders can have failed to notice the rapid rises in fuel prices over recent months. However, many New Zealanders still do not realise the real reason for these rises. Probably the main reason for this situation is that the Clark government has deliberately downplayed or totally ignored very pertinent facts, in order to mislead the New Zealand public into thinking there is a future in the continued pursuance of it policies, policies that are actually based on ideology, are largely dysfunctional and should have been abandoned years ago.

In 1998, Colin Campbell, world renowned oil geologist, drew attention to the fact that the world was moving rapidly towards Peak Oil and that some time early in the twenty-first century the supply of oil would reach a maximum and then go into decline.
Kevin Moore is energy spokesperson for the Direct Democracy Party.
(18 August 2005)

The black art of oil pricing
Ian Fraser, Sunday Herald (Australia)
AS the futures traders sat huddled in front of their flickering terminals on the Singaporean trading floor, they were focused on one thing: the world oil price. Last Thursday, they were determined to push it through another psychological barrier – $65 for a barrel of crude – and the time seemed right for yet another bullish speculative rally.

A cocktail of geopoliticial, economic and industry factors were on their side, all conspiring to restrict supplies and boost global demand for the black gold. These included fears of political instability in the Middle East – fears which had been exacerbated by the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia on August 1.

...Yet against such a skittish backdrop, it has not been too hard for speculators and hedge funds to make a fast buck by driving up the price of a barrel of the black gold. Their method is simple. They buy up “oil futures” – contracts to buy or sell a quantity of crude at a fixed date and at a fixed price in the future – at whatever price they can. They can be relatively confident that, when it comes to making deliveries, the actual price is bound to be higher still. To guarantee this, they have a vested interest in ensuring that every piece of bad news echoes around the world’s media outlets. The aim? To give the impression the world is running out of oil.

...Certainly there seems little chance of oil supplies running out any time soon. A 2000 study by the US Geological Survey found that the Earth probably still contains about 649 billion barrels of oil and that this figure is likely to increase over time as more is discovered. The report concluded that only 24% of the world’s oil has already been exploited .

...But what about the longer term? Robert Kaplan, professor at Boston University’s Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies, says he expects that the production peak – after which producing oil will become much more expensive (but before which the price is unlikely to rise much above $60 per barrel) – to occur in 2015-25.

Contributing to a blog on WSJ.com, Kaplan predicts the transition to alternative energy sources will be painful. “The 20th century could be called the petroleum age,” he writes.

“Inexpensive oil means goods can be imported and exported at little extra cost, people can live far from work and a small fraction of the workforce can feed those that produce the goods and services we associate with modernity. All this may change after the global peak in oil production. As such, the peak isn’t just an economic problem, it’s one of the biggest social and political challenges for this century.”
(14 August 2005)
An interesting round-up of opinions from the financial community.

Fear is the fuel driving oil prices along the Peak theory road
Michael West, The Australian
...Once regarded as the domain of crackpots and scaremongers, Peak Oil Theory is now fashionable.

...The era of high oil prices, which now seems upon us, is great news for oil and gas producers but it is dreadful for just about everyone else, especially the likes of transporters and airlines. In the medium term, crude oil is far more likely to rise in price, than fall.

And a few years from now ... well, no less than another 12 uranium explorers have materialised on the ASX in the past 30 trading days.
(18 August 2005)