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Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world
Rembrandt, The Oil Drum: Europe
An important Dutch energy institute, the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), recently published a report that confirms most of the conclusions about the oil market reached over the years at the oildrum.
That the floor price of oil is now 110 dollars per barrel, that supply will not rise beyond 100-105 million b/d in the coming decades, that there will be an oil supply constraint for most of the next decade, that there are insufficient quantities of alternative fuels available and that thus demand destruction is inevitable.
CIEP is especially important because it is endorsed by amongst others BP, Shell Netherlands, Total E&P Netherlands, three Dutch Ministries, Wintershall, Vopak Oil Europe Middle East and several Dutch energy companies. The report in english can be downloaded here (PDF 2.8 megabytes, 108 pages).
(30 July 2008)
A visit to Malaysia
Big Gav, The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
I spent a week in Malaysia back in June, loafing about in the sun on the island of Langkawi. While I mostly tried to ignore the news flow, I did read the local paper each day and there seemed to be plenty of energy related stories on the boil. These ranged from prominent exposure of the global "energy and food crises" to more locally focused issues, which I'll take a look at in this post.
Tourism is Malaysia's third largest foreign exchange earner after manufactured goods and palm oil, so rising fuel prices are likely to crimp the local economy (although palm oil exports would seem likely to offset the impact on the other 2 sectors).
This was borne out anecdotally during my visit, as the resort driver who took us to the airport at the end of our visit noted that off season was much quieter than normal, with a occupancy rate of around 30% compared to the usual 50%, which he blamed on the rising price of oil. This doesn't seem to be reflected in overall visitor numbers so far though, so perhaps it is just the higher-end resorts that are being impacted so far.
(3 August 2008)
Deep Green: peak oil changes everything
Rex Weyler, Greenpeace UK
Here's the latest in the Deep Green column from Rex Weyler - author, journalist, ecologist and long-time Greenpeace trouble-maker. The opinions here are his own.
As the era of cheap liquid fuels draws to an end, everything about modern consumer society will change. Likewise, developing societies pursuing the benefits of globalization will struggle to grow economies in an era of scarce liquid fuels. The most localized, self-reliant communities will experience the least disruption.
(4 August 2008)