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Russia may cut off oil flow to the West
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telgraph (UK)
Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.
Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.
Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.
... Any evidence that the Kremlin is planning to use the oil weapon to intimidate the West could inflame global energy markets. US crude prices jumped to $119 a barrel yesterday on reports of hurricane warnings in the Gulf of Mexico, before falling back slightly.
(28 August 2008)
Georgia crisis could thwart EU project to bypass Russia for natural gas
Judy Dempsey, International Herald Tribune
BERLIN: The crisis in Georgia could be the final blow for the Nabucco natural gas pipeline across the Caucasus - an €8 billion project backed by the European Union - dealing a serious defeat to the Continent's efforts to wean itself from Russian energy.
With Georgia still in turmoil and Russia's recognition of the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, analysts said investors and creditors of the $11.8 billion project would be even more wary of putting their money into a project already running behind schedule. The pipeline is designed to skirt Russia and deliver natural gas from Azerbaijan directly to Europe, stretching over 3,000 kilometers, or about 1,800 miles, from Turkey's borders with Georgia or Iran to Austria.
"Who is going to finance the Nabucco project now, let alone supply it with the gas it needs?" said Borut Grgic, director of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Ljubljana, Slovenia. "Nabucco is all but dead."
(28 August 2008)
EU concerned over Russia's possible plans for critical neighbors
As tensions between Moscow and the West rise, new fears surface over the possibility of Russian military action against other former Soviet states and a face-off between NATO and Russian naval forces in the Black Sea.
After Moscow agreed to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's two rebel regions, as independent states amid widespread condemnation from the West, European leaders began discussing the possibility that Russia could set its sights on other neighboring countries on Wednesday, Aug. 27.
(28 August 2008)
Climate Wars: Gwynne Dyer interview (audio)
Phillip Adams, LateNightLive, ABC (Australia)
Climate change is happening sooner than we thought it would and while most of us focus on not wasting energy or driving less, US and UK military strategists have already started planning to deal with the threats posed by climate change: failed states, famines, floods, new warzones, and millions and millions of refugees.
Gwynne Dyer's book [Climate Wars] gives a number of different scenarios for the future based on conversations with military experts and scientists.
(26 August 2008)
Companion article from ABC: Analyst warns of looming global climate wars
Chris Shaw ("The Feral Metallurgist") writes from Australia:
A fascinating and apocalyptic interview with Gwynne Dyer. After hearing this, I think I'll just go to bed and not get up for a week. ... Enjoy!