OIL DEPLETION ANALYSIS CENTRE

The prospect of weaker oil demand in the face of the Euro crisis was balanced this week by warnings from the IEA and Saudi Arabia. Sadad al-Husseini, the former head of Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco, wrote that "$100 for Brent is quite a correction and it will be a challenge to sustain such a low price beyond the short term"...

Fears of a new phase in the European debt crisis, a decline in oil imports to China in April, and the prospect of a new round of international talks on Iran’s nuclear programme have seen oil prices drop back from recent highs in the past two weeks. Despite all this however, and reports from OPEC that it bolstered supply by 320,000 barrels in April, Brent oil still stands around $112/barrel.

The shale gas 'revolution' suffered another blow this week as the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced an investigation into dealings between industry leader Chesapeake Energy and its chief executive Aubrey McClendon. It emerged recently that McClendon had been taking a private stake in each well the company drills and, unbeknownst to shareholders, borrowed over $1 billion against them...

In a week in which the Leveson inquiry shone a light on the overlap between big business and politics, news that Shell made £2m an hour in Q1 demonstrated only too well why creating the political will to move away from oil appears to be such an uphill battle.

Approval of hydraulic fracturing for gas in the UK moved a step closer this week as a DECC commissioned report on the seismic impact of drilling at Cuadrilla’s Lancashire operation advised ministers to proceed. The report recommended a tightening of procedures around drilling, including a pre-injection diagnostic phase, and a traffic light warning system halting operations should an earthquake over 0.5 magnitude occur...

The IEA poured oil on troubled waters, so to speak, in its April Oil Market Report this week, suggesting a possible “turning of the tide for market fundamentals”. The agency said supply is ahead of demand for the first time since 2009, though geopolitical threats remain...

While awareness of peak oil has advanced light years since ODAC was founded over a decade ago, on the evidence of this week the same cannot be said for the conduct of British energy policy. Back in 2000, Tony Blair's government was blindsided by petrol protests that brought the country to a standstill in 48 hours. Mr Blair bore the scars, and while there was much to criticise in New Labour's energy policy—not least the invasion of Iraq—he developed emergency plans and did not allow a serious recurrence...

Brent oil prices flirted with $125/barrel again this week before dropping back on news of weaker than anticipated European and Chinese industrial activity. The political and economic pressure of surging prices prompted Saudi oil minister Ali Al Naimi to claim the kingdom can raise production by 25% (2.5 mb/d) immediately if necessary. But that was in flat contradiction to his recent admission that 700mb/d of Saudi’s claimed 2.5 mb/d spare capacity could not be brought on stream in under 90 days – three times longer than the standard definition.

Finally, a plausible explanation for the Obama-Cameron political orgy — 'love-in' doesn't quite do it — in Washington this week. For Cameron the benefit of this floorshow was obvious — like Blair with Bush, revelling in the reflected glory of US power — but Obama's motive remained a mystery. What could possibly justify gifting all that folderol and face time with the world's most powerful man? Yesterday we got the answer: international cover for a politically motivated release from strategic petroleum reserves, that's what.

For the oil industry this was CERAweek. As might be expected the conference was an occasion for considerable optimism about energy breakthroughs and successes especially in unconventional production. Behind the self-promotion there were nonetheless some notes of alarm in the air...