Overshoot

Nearly 40% of the global population currently lives within 50 km of a coast, and many of these people depend on the productivity of the sea. Inadequate fisheries management and widespread overuse of marine and coastal resources are eroding the traditional basis of life for millions of people. As coastal populations soar, pressure on marine resources has become unsustainable in many places.

Are no-take fishery reserves the answer?

Last December, after more than 40 years teaching at the School of Community and Regional Planning (SCARP) at the University of British Columbia, Bill Rees gave his last lecture as a full-time professor. As one of his last students, I found his class captivating, and in following up with many of his former students, realized they felt the same way. His career defined the modern science of sustainability, and touched the lives of many, inspiring individuals to devote their lives towards adapting our species to live responsibly on this planet.

- New documentary: "The Crisis of Civilization" with Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
- Peak Oil, Energy Descent, and the Fate of Consumerism
- Coming to terms with Nature, (Spanish and Italian)
- Boom and doom: Revisiting prophecies of collapse (New Scientist)

There is considerable uncertainty about how tightly ecology constrains planetary growth. Given this uncertainty, prudence dictates a conservative approach that takes limits to growth seriously. In an ecologically constrained world, both the global North and the global South need to consider new obligations and limits. A basic commitment to social justice requires that the claims of the poor, chiefly residing in the South, take precedence over the claims of the rich, chiefly residing in the North. The North may have to accept an actual reduction in conventional measures of standard of living to create ecological space for Southern growth.

The return of interest in "The Limits to Growth" continues. After decades of ridicule and insults, the value of the 1972 study and of its sequels is more and more recognized. The latest item in the series of revisitations is an article published by Debora McKenzie in the latest New Scientist magazine.

The end of our industrial lifestyle paradigm will be dictated by Liebig's Law, and by humanity's response to its consequences. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know at this point which increasingly scarce nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) or NNR combination will ultimately prove to be industrialized humanity's limiting factor.

Consequently, humanity's global societal collapse may be triggered by scarcity associated with one or more NNRs other than those commonly considered "most critical" to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm—fossil fuels, or oil specifically. After all, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by a faulty o-ring.

The story of the Empress Galla Placidia deals with such things as system dynamics, the fall of empires, resource depletion, controlling complex systems and, yes, also a little about Christmas.

Her story seems like the plot of an adventure movie. She started as a princess, then she was prisoner of the Goths, then she became their Queen, then she was again their prisoner.

In the 5th century, when she came to power, the Roman Empire had been running out of reactants. It had been growing on the profits made from military campaigns but, at some point around the 2nd century, it had reached its limits. With no more easy conquests in sight, the Empire had to live on its own resources and it never really learned how to do that.

During the 5th century, what an emperor (or empress) could have done was to give to the events just a little push in the right direction. Don't fight the change, ease it. It is the way of pushing the levers in the right direction. Could Placidia have done just that? Incredibly, perhaps she did.

As The Big Engine That Couldn't has faltered for several years, it is becoming increasingly clear the economy is running off the tracks. Both investors and the public are beginning to realize the long-revered goal of endless economic growth is failing. Anger and fear are widespread, as the livelihoods and hopes of ordinary Americans are being destroyed. Anger runs among the "99%" over economic injustices that favor the "1%". Fear, however, may run among 100% over this question: How do we live when economic growth fails?

And here’s the bad news in a nutshell: if you live in the Southwest or just about anywhere in the American West, you or your children and grandchildren could soon enough be facing the Age of Thirst, which may also prove to be the greatest water crisis in the history of civilization. No kidding.

-Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms
-Global carbon intensity on the rise for first time in a decade
-Map reveals stark divide in who caused climate change and who's being hit
-The heat is on
-Health cost of 6 U.S. climate disasters: $14 billion

It seems to me that we may be reaching Limits to Growth," as foretold in the book by the same name in 1972. The book modeled the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies. A wide range of scenarios was tested, but the result in nearly all scenarios was overshoot and collapse, with the timing of collapse typically being in the 2010 to 2075 time period. The authors of Limits to Growth did not model the full interactions of the system. One element omitted was how debt would impact the system. Another item omitted was how prices for oil and other resources would affect the system.

The term "Demographic Transition" describes the movement of human populations from higher initial birth rates to a stabilzed lower one, and seems to be a general feature of most societies over the last several hundred years.

The demographic transition is not a product of wealth or cheap energy in large quantities - we can see that by viewing the history of demographic shifts in Europe and the US. Instead, it is mostly about enabling people to make different reproductive choices, and supporting those choices - it requires no coercion, no high energy infrastructure, and is comparatively cheap to achieve.

Bill Ryerson, Robert Walker, and Julia Whitty examine population’s complex, pervasive relationship to the most pressing issues of our time, including climate change, biodiversity losses, global equity and human rights.