Energy policy

The shale gas phenomenon is so new, and the data so thin, that one wonders at the wisdom of making long-term export decisions with perhaps irreversible consequences. The last two energy manias lived and died without a wisp of a memory. This one, if it goes wrong, may not be so benign.

- Former OPEC researcher on peak oil
- Science: Technology Is Turning U.S. Oil Around But Not the World's
- Former deputy prime minister of Australia: 'Peak everything'
- Peak oil moves to the mainstream

In the past month, three major peer-reviewed journals have published articles relating to limited world oil supply. This is significant, because articles in the mainstream press, such as Bloomberg in a recent article , seem to suggest that our oil problems are past. While the US oil supply situation may be a little better, the world supply situation is still very bad, and oil prices are still very high around the world.

- My Decade of Being "Peak Oil Aware"
- Peak oil educator Richard Heinberg challenges “binary thinking”
- U.S. Oil Fields Stage “Great Revival,” But No Easing Gas Prices
- Robert Rapier: Peak Oil & Carbon Emissions (video)

It is an article of faith that global trade will be an ever-growing presence in the world. Yet this belief rests on shaky foundations. Global trade depends on cheap, long-distance freight transportation. Freight costs will rise with climate change, the end of cheap oil, and policies to mitigate these two challenges.

... In addition to the corporate response, there is a second, more local, noncorporate response. This response is found in the Relocalization and Transition Towns movements now springing up in many developed countries. It is a bottom-up response that includes individuals and municipalities planning for a post-peak-oil future and altering their way of life.

‘Peak Oil Scare Fades as Shale, Deepwater Wells Gush Crude’ was the title of one of the lead articles in Bloomberg’s newly launched ‘Sustainability’ section this week. The report echoes a growing number of press reports announcing the end of the “myth” of peak oil. So what gives?

That conventional oil has peaked and will be in decline over the next decades is no longer controversial – so in that sense peak oil has been and gone, and the economic consequences are evident.

A flurry of new mainstream media articles telling people not to worry about Peak Oil and hydrocarbon depletion have begun appearing on financial sites like Bloomberg, Forbes or The Wall Street Journal. I though it would be worthwhile to analyze some of their arguments. At least some media outlets are willing to even discuss peak oil at all—most remain completely silent.

A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week

On January 23, 2012, Chesapeake Energy announced that it would curtail drilling in shale gas plays in the United States. Subsequently, other operators have followed suit. While the outcome of this announcement is unclear, it is a signal that the industry is in distress. One can argue that this distress stems from a lack of discipline as market price began to decline.

If we could see the world with a particularly illuminating set of spectacles, one of its most prominent features at the moment would be a giant carbon bubble, whose bursting someday will make the housing bubble of 2007 look like a lark. As yet -- as we shall see -- it's unfortunately largely invisible to us.

In a detailed analysis submitted to the National Energy Board, Robyn Allan, the former president and CEO of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, concludes that "Northern Gateway is neither needed nor is in the public interest." Moreover the project, if built, would raise the price of every oil barrel by $2 to $3 dollars in Canada over the next 30 years, and thereby create an inflationary price shock that would have "a negative and prolonged impact... by reducing output, employment, labour income and government revenues."

- Peak Oil Scare Fades as Shale, Deepwater Wells Gush Crude
- Oil, Food, Water: Is Everything Past Its Peak?
- Fulsome Fossil Fuels And The 'Peak Oil' Myth
- Peak Oil--No Longer the Right Question
(Note: several of these articles actually concede most of the points made by peak oilers.)

- Kunstler interviews Arthur E. Berman, Petroleum Geologist: Magical Thinking and Fracking (audio)
- Coal Lobby Warns Wind Farms May Blow Earth Off Orbit (video from The Onion)
- Energy.gov: Where information goes to die

The current boom in drilling for ‘unconventional’ gas has helped raise US production to levels not seen since the early 1970′s. This has been an incredible boon to consumers and has kept spot prices contained below $5 per million BTU for the past year, recently dropping below $3/mmbtu. Unfortunately, this price is below the cost of production for many of these new wells. When the flood of investment currently pouring into natural gas drilling operations dries up, the inevitable bust will be as scary as the boom was exciting.